GBP/USD: Both US & UK Retail Sales Impress

The Hungarian Forint advanced versus the US dollar for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday. The Hungarian Forint strengthen to 297.87 before giving back some of those gains. The US dollar Hungarian Forint exchange rate closed the session on Wednesday down -0.14% at 289.89. The Hungarian Forint is advancing in early trade on Thursday.

The dollar weakened sharply on Wednesday following the release of the ADP private payroll data and ISM non-manufacturing figures. Both sets of data surprised to the downside. The soft readings came following weak manufacturing numbers earlier this week. A trio of disappointing numbers meant investors were growing increasingly concerned that the impact on the US economy of the ongoing US — Sino trade war, was greater than initially thought.

The dollar rebounded and is extending those gains amid renewed hope that the US and China are closing in on a phase one trade deal. The latest reports suggest that the two powers are discussing the rolling back of trade tariffs, as they draw near to a deal. The to-ing and fro-ing of headlines continues to move the markets, which are showing little fatigue from the constant two steps forward one step back.

Today investors will look towards more data to try to gauge how the US economy is holding up. US trade balance, factory orders and initial jobless claims will be under the spotlight ahead of Friday’s closely watched non-farm payrolls.

Forint Rises On Stock Market Rally

Hungary’s stock exchange rallied over 2.3% on Wednesday, outperforming its central European peers on improved investor sentiment amid the twist and turns of the US — China trade dispute. The rally in the Budapest stock exchange lifted demand for the Hungarian Forint.

However, gains were relatively short lived. The release of the minutes from the National Bank of Hungary’s November 19th monetary policy meeting confirmed the central bank’s accommodative stance. In the meeting, rate setters voted unanimously to keep interest rates on hold. They also confirmed that they would need to see a change in the outlook for inflation to drive the decision to adjust monetary policy.

Hungarian Forint investors will now turn their attention to retail sales data due today. After retail sales increased a solid 5.8% in September, analysts are expecting retail sales to have increased an impressive 6.3% in October. Strong retail sales figures create inflationary pressure. Therefore, a solid reading could lift the Hungarian Forint.


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