USD/PKR Regains Ground above 155.00 on Dented Trade Deal Hopes

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USD/PKR was edging up 0.21% to 155.125 in late Asian session on Wednesday.

USD/PKR traded mostly higher on Tuesday amid absence of relevant macroeconomic data and dented hopes of a swift resolution to US-China trade tensions.

US President Donald Trump said yesterday, before attending a NATO meeting in London, that there was no deadline for reaching a trade deal with China. It could be better to wait until after the presidential election in November 2020, he said. Therefore, the probability of a “phase-one” accord in December decreased, while supporting demand for safe heaven assets.

Near-term interest rate expectations remained without change. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, as of December 3rd, investors saw zero percent chance of a rate cut occurring at the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in December, unchanged from a week ago. The probability of a rate cut in March is now 24.0%, up from 17.9% a week ago.

The US Dollar Index was inching up 0.03% to 97.708 in late Asian trade on Wednesday.

Today’s focus will be on the US data string. A report by ADP at 12:15 GMT may show employers in the US non-farm private sector added 138 000 new jobs during November, as expected by analysts, following 125 000 new positions added in October. In case new job growth exceeds expectations in November, this would have a moderate-to-strong bullish effect on USD.

A separate report by the Institute for Supply Management at 14:00 GMT may show activity in the US sector of services continued to expand in November. The respective Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 54.5. In October the index stood at 54.7, bouncing from September’s near three-year low of 52.6, as the sub-indexes of business activity, employment and new orders all showed accelerated growth. In case the actual index reading exceeds market consensus in November, this would have a strong bullish effect on USD.

At 15:00 GMT Fed’s Vice Chairman for Supervision, Randal Quarles, will testify on Supervision and Regulation before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington. Any remarks concerning the Bank’s future policy or US macroeconomic environment would heighten USD volatility.


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