The US dollar trended lower versus its Canadian counterpart across the previous week. The US dollar Canadian dollar exchange rate closed the week at 1.3277, a loss of -0.18% across the week. The pair is edging higher in early trade on Monday.
The US traded in a relatively muted fashion across the Thanksgiving week. The dollar received some support after GDP data exceeded analysts’ expectations. The US economy grew at a decent 2.1% annualised rate in the third quarter. This was better than the 1.9% forecast and boosted demand for the US dollar.
The other key theme last week, which will almost certainly continue into this week was the US — China trade dispute. Whilst hopes had been rising of the two powers signing a phase one trade deal imminently, this is now looking less likely. Firstly, Trump signed the Hong King bill into law, rocking already fragile relations with China. Over the weekend, China’s Global Times reported that China is insisting that US tariffs must be rolled back as part of the phase one trade deal. So far, Trump has failed to agree to this demand. Risk sentiment is taking a hit on these latest headlines, boosting the demand for the safe haven dollar.
Looking across the week there are some notable macro-economic releases which could provide further clues as to the health of the US economy. The most keenly awaited will be Friday’s non-farm payroll, however, prior to that today’s ISM manufacturing data will also be closely watched. Analyst are expecting manufacturing to have improved, although the sector is still expected to be in contraction. An upbeat reading could lift the dollar.
Canadian Dollar Slips After Slump In GDP
The Canadian dollar was under pressure at the end of the previous week, following the Canadian GDP release. Economic growth in the third quarter was recorded at 1.3%. This was a sharp slowdown from the previous quarter of 3.5% annualised growth, which was largely considered unsustainable. A drop in exports and a draw down in inventories were to blame.
Investors will now look to today’s manufacturing pmi. Further signs of weakness will boost investor expectations that the Bank of Canada could adopt a more dovish stance come the next monetary policy meeting this week.