GBP/INR Surges As Markets Expect India’s GDP Growth Below 5%

• GBP/INR is trading at 92.665, up 0.38% as of 6:30 AM UTC.
• GfK said its consumer confidence index remained unchanged in November at -14 (lowest level since 2013)
• Most economists expect India to have recorded a quarterly GDP growth figure below 5% (lowest level in +6 years)

GBP/INR is confidently rallying on Friday, as India is expected to release disappointing gross domestic product (GDP) data. Currently, the pair is trading at 92.665, up 0.38% as of 6:30 AM UTC.

The pound manages to stay stronger despite a series of weak UK economic data. Recently, market research firm GfK said that its consumer confidence index remained unchanged in November at -14, which is the lowest level since 2013.

Yesterday, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) announced that the profits at UK professional and business services firms declined by the most in eight years for a second consecutive quarter.

However, the rupe is in a worse position as most economists expect India to have recorded a quarterly GDP growth figure below 5%, which will be the lowest level in over six years. The economic deceleration comes after several months of disappointing data, including tumbling car sales and factory output.

The central bank took aggressive easing measures but all in vain. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making sure that the government contributes to the revival. He cut corporate taxes, established a special real-estate fund, started the largest privatization campaign in more than 10 years, and merged local banks. Still, there are no signs of recovery yet.

Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Group Holdings in Singapore, commented:

“Domestic demand is displaying chronic weakness, with an apparent credit crunch afflicting wide swaths of the economy. Production and sales are under pressure, and public spending is running out of room due to poor tax collection.”

Later today, the government data will likely show that the GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.5% in the three months to September, according to the average forecasts of 41 economists polled by Bloomberg. This will be the slowest growth rate since March 2013.

Indranil Pan, chief economist at IDFC First Bank in Mumbai, stated:

“The nature of the slowdown is broad-based, with consumption as well as investment oriented sectors feeling the pain. Continuing poor domestic sentiment along with the lack of any demand uptake globally would ensure that any recovery process would only be gradual.”

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