GBP/USD: Fed Comments & Languishing UK Politics Drive Pair

The pound pared most of the losses from the previous week on Monday. The pound rallied 0.4% versus the US dollar, hitting a 10-day high of US$1.2914, before easing slightly to close just below US$1.29. The pair is slipping lower in early trade on Tuesday.

The pound climbed in the previous session as the latest polls for the December 12th election showed that the Conservatives remain the clear favourite to win the election, pledging an end to the Brexit uncertainty that has weighed on the UK economy since June 2016.

All 634 Conservative candidates have pledged to support Boris Johnson’s Brexit bill. This means that in the case that the Tories win a majority Boris Johnson’s Brexit bill should pass quickly through Parliament with the UK leaving the European Union by 31st January, in an orderly fashion. A damaging no deal Brexit should be avoided. The fact that Boris Johnson’s election manifesto also included a moderate increase in spending of £2.9 billion per year, compared to Labour’s £83 billion is also helping lift sterling.

Data showing that UK retailers saw a better than expected pick up in sales in November also boosted the pound on Monday. The report by the Confederation of British Industry showed that retailers are more upbeat about the month ahead, which includes the crucial Christmas trading season.

Today the UK economic calendar is empty. Investors will continue focusing on election speculation and polls to drive the pound.

Jerome Powell’s Upbeat Remarks Lift Dollar

The dollar lacked direction in the previous session despite positive news flow surrounding the US — China trade talks. The latest reports are indicating that a Chinese US phase one trade deal is very close. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also gave some upbeat comments over the US economy supporting the US dollar.

Today there are several US data releases which could attract investor attention. These include the US trade balance; house price index and the US consumer confidence numbers will be the most closely watched. Analysts are predicting that household confidence will hold steady in November. A confident consumer tends to spend more. This is very important at this time of year ahead of Black Friday and the crucial holiday shopping period. A strong figure could boost the dollar.

What do these figures mean?
When measuring the value of a pair of currencies, one set equals 1 unit and the other shows the current equivalent. As the market moves, the amount will vary from minute to minute.

For example, it could be written:

1 GBP = 1.28934 USD

Here, £1 is equivalent to approximately $1.29. This specifically measures the pound’s worth against the dollar. If the US dollar amount increases in this pairing, it’s positive for the pound.

Or, if you were looking at it the other way around:

1 USD = 0.77786 GBP

In this example, $1 is equivalent to approximately £0.78. This measures the US dollar’s worth versus the British pound. If the sterling number gets larger, it’s good news for the dollar.

 


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